Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EC 0xec57…e0ac other 88 markets active 19h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,756 (-3%) realized −$5,174 · open +$418
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%48W / 32L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,775per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$435est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$22,959now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$562
14 days−$27,261
30 days−$27,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$2,070
other 31% −$4,443
crypto 15% +$3,096
world 11% +$529
politics 8% +$307
economics 1% −$456
culture 1% −$630
tech 0% +$64
finance 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -27.3% -34.2% 0% 0% -34.2%
≤30d 18 -91.6% -92.4% 0% 0% -94.1%
≤90d 21 -73.6% -76.1% 10% 10% -51.8%
all 80 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 41% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 41% -12.3%
10% -12.4% 32% -20.7%
15% -20.9% 26% -28.4%
20% -28.6% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$822 vs −$1,357 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$22,959
Realized−$5,174
Unrealized+$418
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses48 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$435
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 88
History coverage630d
Avg bet$1,775
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,999 $7,909 +$1,910 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,080 $5,460 +$1,380 (+34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $2,442 +$442 (+22%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,600 $2,127 −$1,472 (-41%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,456 $1,936 −$1,521 (-44%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,847 $1,684 −$163 (-9%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,559 $1,401 −$158 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,059 −$562 -27%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Jun 07 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 07 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Jun 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24? Jun 07 $176 −$176 -100%
Barnett vs. Abdelwahab Jun 07 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by KO/TKO/DQ? Jun 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Jun 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $500 −$104 -21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Jun 07 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 07 $9,229 −$9,229 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 07 $11,040 −$11,040 -100%
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? Jun 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $557 −$98 -18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $9,988 +$8,022 +80%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $900 +$360 +40%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Jan 02 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $100 +$6 +6%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $100 +$19 +19%
Will TikTok be banned in 2025? Jan 02 $120 +$10 +9%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jan 02 $120 +$25 +20%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Jan 02 $250 +$123 +49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $530 +$142 +27%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 27 $600 +$211 +35%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-25? Nov 27 $1,000 +$2,030 +203%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 11 $500 +$782 +156%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Nov 04 $90 +$20 +22%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 04 $250 +$508 +203%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 30 $1,000 −$630 -63%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 30 $500 +$914 +183%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 26 $90 +$47 +52%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 26 $234 +$14 +6%
Volkov vs. Almeida Oct 26 $100 +$156 +156%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 26 $200 +$128 +64%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Oct 26 $220 +$138 +63%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 26 $2,000 +$2,073 +104%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $272 +$21 +8%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 09 $100 +$107 +107%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $260 −$2 -1%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 07 $1,000 +$87 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Will Borralho win by decision? Sep 07 $200 +$63 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Sep 07 $4,894 +$5,269 +108%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 24 $2,230 −$792 -36%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 24 $500 −$275 -55%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 15 $300 +$54 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 19h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $716 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $720 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND W BUY 11¢ $10 4d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $384 6d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $489 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $778 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $142 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,358 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,060 31d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $893 31d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $970 31d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,553 31d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $463 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $459 34d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $666 35d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $721 35d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $721 35d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4,119 35d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,802 35d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $557 39d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,059 39d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,057 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 39d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,059 39d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,059 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,058 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,058 39d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,059 39d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 24¢ $16,833 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,959.20 · official $22,959.20 (match) · 308 history records