Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec57…0fa7 other 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$19,928 (+15%) realized +$19,922 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate43%114W / 150L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day142.4pace
Fees−$519est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,999
7 days+$6,985
14 days+$9,440
30 days+$15,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$5,680
sports 34% +$8,250
crypto 1% +$779
world 1% −$46
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +93.6% +75.1% 30% 15% +1.9%
≤30d 264 +54.9% +40.1% 43% 21% +1.7%
≤90d 264 +54.9% +40.1% 43% 21% +1.7%
all 264 +54.9% +40.1% 43% 21% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.1% 21% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here +26.7% 18% -8.0%
15% +14.5% 15% -16.9%
20% +3.2% 14% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$35 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$19,922
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses114 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$519
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 251
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$537
Trades / day142.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $151 $157 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$7 -27%
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? Jun 17 $24 +$432 +1823%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $11 −$12 -110%
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$41 -160%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $19 −$8 -44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $1 +$89 +8994%
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 −$53 -10%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$38 +153%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$758 +5963%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $148 −$44 -29%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 +$706 +3823%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $404 −$169 -42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $236 +$372 +157%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,894 +$73 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $522 +$2,998 +575%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $166 −$19 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $250 −$16 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$281 +3100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,001 +$163 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,749 +$144 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $250 +$10 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,002 +$60 +6%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,078 −$46 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $406 +$196 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $275 +$286 +104%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$12 -24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,702 +$55 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $900 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $35 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $36 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $2 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $180 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $200 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $1 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $70 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $35 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $35 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $11 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $23 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $3 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $68 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $2 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $2 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $256 17m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 13¢ $63 18m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 19m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 19m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 19m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.00 · official $157.00 (match) · 3500 history records