Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec58…3f58 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$19
other 40% −$22
sports 8% +$23
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 +0.4% -9.2% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 127 +0.2% -9.4% 10% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage122d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $302 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $305 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $308 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $330 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $490 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $276 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $246 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $295 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $334 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $329 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $323 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $355 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 19d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 25d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 26d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 26d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $277 30d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $277 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $276 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $276 32d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $305 32d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.05 · official $84.05 (match) · 415 history records