Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec59…bb35 sports 95 markets active 3h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10,197 (+5%) realized +$8,581 · open +$1,616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$2,205per market
Trades / day204.8pace
Fees−$1,790est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$8,435
crypto 26% +$1,477
other 23% +$9,411
tech 5% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -6.3% -15.2% 52% 45% -15.3%
≤30d 91 +17.8% +6.6% 53% 44% -1.3%
≤90d 91 +17.8% +6.6% 53% 44% -1.3%
all 91 +17.8% +6.6% 53% 44% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 44% -1.3%
10% -3.6% 42% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here -12.9% 41% -19.4%
20% -21.4% 35% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$2,080) neutral
Persistence
early +49% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
34.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,511 vs −$1,269 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$33,069
Realized+$8,581
Unrealized+$1,616
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,790
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$2,205
Trades / day204.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $21,852 $22,444 +$592 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4,175 $4,037 −$137 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2,800 $3,850 +$1,050 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2,625 $2,738 +$112 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,773 +$4,227 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,830 +$1,170 +64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,959 +$3,275 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,657 −$1,657 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,275 +$1,225 +96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3,183 −$3,183 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,447 −$1,447 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,097 −$2,097 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,161 +$986 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,350 +$1,150 +85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,980 +$1,020 +52%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $540 −$540 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $2,541 −$2,541 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,490 −$2,490 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,777 −$2,777 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 14 $2,146 −$2,146 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,012 −$2,012 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,321 −$2,321 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,508 +$2,492 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,593 +$1,215 +47%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,768 +$212 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,140 −$553 -48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $621 +$679 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,551 +$449 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $935 +$1,065 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $913 +$1,387 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,368 +$1,132 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,350 +$1,650 +122%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,302 +$98 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $10,944 +$150 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $387 +$13 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1,423 +$1,192 +84%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $889 −$889 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $877 −$877 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,070 +$928 +45%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $800 +$10 +1%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1,190 +$847 +71%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1,082 −$1,082 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 11 $810 −$810 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $744 −$744 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 11 $2,036 −$2,036 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,176 −$2,176 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $513 −$513 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $111 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $39 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $40 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $208 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $123 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $11 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $92 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $235 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $47 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $126 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $38 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $128 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $360 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $119 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $240 3h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3,600 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $265 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $269 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,068.84 · official $33,068.84 (match) · 3500 history records