Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec5a…3289 world 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 38L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$6
other 28% +$4
politics 4% +$1
sports 3% +$21
weather 3% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 33 -2.2% -11.5% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 61 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 8% -8.6%
10% -19.6% 5% -17.4%
15% -27.4% 5% -25.4%
20% -34.5% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage535d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $37 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $144 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $37 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $4 −$1 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $9 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 −$1 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $93 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $11 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $22 +$2 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $6 −$1 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $267 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $32 $0 +1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $4 $0 +10%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $6 $0 +5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $33 +$2 +4%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 02 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $7 9m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $43 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.19 · official $32.19 (match) · 244 history records