Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec5b…481e other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-11%) realized −$83 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$11
crypto 16% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.9% -46.6% 17% 17% -53.5%
≤30d 6 -40.9% -46.6% 17% 17% -53.5%
≤90d 6 -40.9% -46.6% 17% 17% -53.5%
all 9 -30.3% -37.0% 22% 11% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 11% -43.6%
10% -43.0% 11% -49.0%
15% -48.5% 11% -53.9%
20% -53.6% 11% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage158d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $97 $125 +$28 (+29%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? Jan 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jan 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 12¢ $99 4d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 29d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? SELL No 21¢ $4 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? SELL No 21¢ $1 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? BUY No 20¢ $5 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? SELL No 19¢ $0 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? SELL No 19¢ $6 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? BUY No 20¢ $6 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? SELL No 18¢ $6 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? BUY No 18¢ $6 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? SELL No 24¢ $5 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? BUY No 26¢ $5 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? SELL No 22¢ $5 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.43 · official $185.37 (match) · 36 history records