Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec5c…4526 other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,005 (-36%) realized −$3,005 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$1,738
other 34% −$1,305
sports 4% +$20
world 3% −$13
tech 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.3% -33.3% 31% 31% -34.9%
≤30d 17 +10.1% -0.4% 35% 35% -6.1%
≤90d 17 +10.1% -0.4% 35% 35% -6.1%
all 68 -40.8% -46.5% 18% 18% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 18% -44.6%
10% -51.6% 18% -49.9%
15% -56.3% 16% -54.7%
20% -60.6% 15% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$72 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,005
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 56
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage227d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $90 −$70 -78%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$2 -9%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $263 +$17 +6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 +$48 +142%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -71%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$21 +147%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $89 +$26 +29%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $11 +$77 +683%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $248 −$13 -5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January? Jan 11 $134 +$114 +85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 17 $718 −$179 -25%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Dec 14 $186 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5AM ET Dec 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 12PM ET Dec 12 $600 −$292 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Dec 12 $19 −$17 -89%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 12 $837 −$257 -31%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12PM ET Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6AM ET Dec 10 $105 +$184 +176%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? Dec 07 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 8? Dec 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 7AM ET Dec 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 2? Dec 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 2? Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $427 +$236 +55%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on November 19? Nov 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Nov 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? Nov 12 $50 −$8 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 10h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 10h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 10h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 11h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $82 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $134 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $141 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $140 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 37h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records