Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EC 0xec5e…3e59 other 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$682 (+65%) realized +$682 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$340
14 days+$541
30 days+$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$330
other 36% +$341
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 2 +109.5% +89.6% 100% 100% +88.4%
≤90d 11 +27.2% +15.1% 100% 36% +52.8%
all 16 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 25% +48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 25% +48.6%
10% -2.8% 25% +34.4%
15% -12.2% 19% +21.4%
20% -20.8% 12% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$682
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage169d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $324 +$340 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $176 +$200 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $87 +$40 +46%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 20 $310 +$90 +29%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Apr 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 10? Jan 13 $14 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Jan 08 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records