Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec60…8ad8 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,594 (-8%) realized −$1,547 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%61W / 49L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$205est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days−$351
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,723
other 5% +$32
world 3% +$45
weather 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +26.7% +14.6% 100% 100% +12.2%
≤30d 16 -25.8% -32.9% 50% 50% -30.1%
≤90d 109 +8.7% -1.7% 55% 49% -17.0%
all 110 +8.8% -1.5% 55% 49% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 49% -16.8%
10% -11.0% 41% -24.8%
15% -19.6% 37% -32.0%
20% -27.5% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$121 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$1,547
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses61 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$205
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage95d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $101 $54 −$47 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $622 −$522 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $540 +$69 +13%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $71 +$13 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $213 +$157 +74%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$32 -62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $93 +$17 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $230 −$230 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $178 −$177 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $95 −$95 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $204 +$111 +54%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $13 −$13 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $197 +$202 +102%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $55 −$54 -99%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $50 +$144 +288%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $48 +$52 +108%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers May 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $36 +$4 +10%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 09 $34 +$66 +194%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $9 −$8 -87%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 08 $24 −$23 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $29 −$28 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $67 −$67 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $76 −$75 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $40 −$35 -88%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $34 +$66 +194%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $50 +$100 +203%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $30 +$262 +873%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $334 −$334 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Apr 20 $359 −$359 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $217 −$203 -93%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Ningbo Rockets Apr 17 $346 +$100 +29%
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Fujian Sturgeons Apr 17 $322 +$138 +43%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Apr 16 $44 +$24 +54%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $777 −$777 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $163 +$136 +83%
Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 16 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 15? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 15? Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 15? Apr 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 15? Apr 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 15? Apr 15 $22 +$70 +312%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $116 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 1h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 16h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $275 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $302 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $9 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $2 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $9 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $403 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $79 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.87 · official $265.87 (match) · 607 history records