Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec62…3a1c crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,501 (-13%) realized −$1,557 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%43W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$39
14 days−$50
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1,031
sports 42% −$887
other 6% −$6
world 5% +$133
politics 1% −$12
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.1% -45.8% 50% 50% +2.8%
≤30d 11 -50.7% -55.4% 27% 27% -3.4%
≤90d 102 -31.4% -37.9% 42% 36% -30.2%
all 102 -31.4% -37.9% 42% 36% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 36% -30.2%
10% -43.9% 28% -36.9%
15% -49.3% 21% -43.0%
20% -54.3% 19% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$52 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$1,557
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses43 / 59
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions6
Markets (closed)102 / 117
History coverage66d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $46 $67 +$21 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $22 $41 +$19 (+87%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $38 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $229 +$64 +28%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 −$10 -31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $29 −$22 -76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $38 −$22 -59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $166 +$114 +68%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 15 $46 −$5 -10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet May 15 $18 +$1 +8%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3,692 −$937 -25%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 02 $74 +$39 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $201 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 30 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 30 $4 −$4 -96%
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $281 +$103 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $119 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 29? Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 27 $497 −$497 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 27 $130 −$50 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 27 $412 +$46 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 27 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 27 $663 +$38 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 27 $174 +$44 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 27 $110 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 27 $116 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 27 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 27 $140 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 27 $326 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 27 $75 −$33 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 27 $340 +$110 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 27 $276 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 27 $57 +$29 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$9 +85%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $387 −$73 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 27 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $293 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $214 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 24¢ $12 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 7h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazi BUY 23¢ $17 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN BUY 14¢ $16 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Por BUY 33¢ $17 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $13 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 17¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $8 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 24¢ $12 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 56¢ $23 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 18¢ $7 13d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 36¢ $16 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $279 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $166 30d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 72¢ $29 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.22 · official $235.12 · 374 history records