Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec62…4a64 crypto 841 markets active 5h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$205 (-6%) realized −$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%391W / 450L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$183
14 days−$183
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 653 -10.3% -18.8% 45% 44% -17.5%
≤30d 832 -10.6% -19.1% 47% 44% -17.2%
≤90d 841 -11.0% -19.4% 46% 44% -18.7%
all 841 -11.0% -19.4% 46% 44% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 44% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 39% -26.5%
15% -34.2% 36% -33.6%
20% -40.6% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses391 / 450
Open positions0
Markets (closed)841 / 841
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 841 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$14 +701%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2011 history records