trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $118 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 12 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 19 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Apr 15 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana hit $210 in March? | Apr 03 | $1 | $0 | -26% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 17 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 29% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 29% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 48% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -22.0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 0% | -33.3% |