Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xec64…c9cc other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$262 (+22%) realized +$288 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$23
14 days−$58
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$335
sports 15% −$75
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.7% -4.4% 60% 60% -0.3%
≤30d 30 -34.0% -40.3% 37% 37% -20.6%
≤90d 34 -9.0% -17.6% 44% 44% +9.9%
all 38 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 47% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% +11.6%
10% -20.8% 47% +0.9%
15% -28.5% 45% -8.8%
20% -35.5% 24% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$17 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage282d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$15 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$4 -4%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $26 +$13 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$35 +146%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $42 +$159 +378%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $29 +$61 +209%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $94 +$75 +79%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $63 +$31 +50%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $38 +$25 +64%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-09-17? Mar 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $28 +$10 +37%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $10 +$18 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 78¢ $55 34m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $27 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 56¢ $97 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 30h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $64 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $54 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $9 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $19 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 9¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 11d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 51¢ $20 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $3 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 12d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 62 history records