Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec68…6cee other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$23
politics 27% −$19
sports 18% −$12
crypto 10% −$1
finance 5% $0
culture 5% −$4
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 62 -0.9% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 117 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 133 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 118
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage99d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $420 −$3 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $220 −$3 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $549 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $63 −$2 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $115 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $58 $0 -1%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $55 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $173 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $218 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $343 −$2 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $55 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $47 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 10h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 18h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 18h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 18h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $52 19h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $53 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $65 29h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $65 36h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $53 37h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $53 41h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 42h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $60 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $63 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 93¢ $61 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $63 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $56 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.33 · official $57.33 (match) · 483 history records