Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec69…cbe5 sports 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,045 (-4%) realized −$709 · open −$336
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate74%207W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10,759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$80
14 days+$60
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$271
sports 44% −$349
crypto 9% −$280
other 1% −$161
world 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.5% -14.5% 80% 60% +9.6%
≤30d 9 -30.6% -37.2% 56% 44% -13.4%
≤90d 24 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 38% -19.3%
all 279 -6.4% -15.3% 74% 27% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 27% -14.2%
10% -23.4% 17% -22.4%
15% -30.8% 14% -29.9%
20% -37.6% 9% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$10,759
Realized−$709
Unrealized−$336
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses207 / 72
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)279 / 283
History coverage184d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 86¢ $8,483 $8,587 +$104 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $2,493 $2,120 −$373 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $84 $51 −$33 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $150 +$41 +27%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $117 +$32 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $105 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$43 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 07 $31 +$31 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 07 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs AaB Esport - Map 2 Winner May 02 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner May 02 $19 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: May 02 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 24 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 24 $23 +$21 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 24 $25 +$23 +93%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs bond1e - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner Mar 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Feb 28 $49 +$9 +19%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs los kogutos - Map 2 Winner Feb 28 $47 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gro Feb 28 $45 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Feb 27 $119 −$83 -69%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: E Feb 27 $86 +$33 +38%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: European Feb 27 $84 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Conte Feb 27 $81 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Feb 27 $80 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Omega - Map 2 Winner Feb 27 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 27 $19 +$18 +97%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs RED Canids - Map 2 Winner Feb 27 $91 +$69 +75%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs RED Canids - Map 1 Winner Feb 26 $79 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 26 $40 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 26 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 26 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 26 $7 +$7 +97%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ENCE - Map 1 Winner Feb 26 $7 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Feb 26 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 26 $119 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 26 $86 +$33 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $36 16m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $191 30m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 99¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 77¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 18h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $8,535 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $113 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $82 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $61 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 45d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 50d
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs AaB Esport - Map 2 Winner SELL BIG Academy 99¢ $21 50d
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs AaB Esport - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG Academy 94¢ $20 50d
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner SELL ASTRAL 100¢ $19 50d
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner BUY ASTRAL 99¢ $19 50d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: SELL magic 83¢ $19 50d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: BUY magic 82¢ $19 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 50d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,758.83 · official $10,763.86 (match) · 659 history records