Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec6e…8eb9 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+11%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$42
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$51
other 33% −$3
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 29% -0.5%
≤30d 78 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 29% +0.4%
≤90d 78 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 29% +0.4%
all 78 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 29% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 29% +0.4%
10% -40.6% 27% -9.2%
15% -46.3% 24% -18.0%
20% -51.6% 22% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 −$1 -2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $39 +$12 +31%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$3 -33%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$17 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 +$4 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$7 +173%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +474%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$5 +97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$7 +344%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 75¢ $39 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 26h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $8 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 32h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $4 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records