Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec6f…4e4c sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%20W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 23% −$2
sports 23% −$3
other 21% −$3
crypto 8% $0
economics 8% −$1
culture 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 181 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses20 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage161d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 27 $244 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $135 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $122 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $87 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $30 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $30 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $31 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $31 8d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 20d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 20d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $1 28d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $1 35d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $33 36d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $13 36d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $20 39d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $37 115d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $37 115d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 91¢ $41 115d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 91¢ $41 115d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $33 115d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $33 115d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $32 115d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $32 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $38 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $38 115d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 115d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 115d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $3 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 116d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $28 116d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $28 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 794 history records