Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EC 0xec75…84b1 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$648 (-20%) realized −$648 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$40
14 days−$233
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$836
crypto 8% +$7
other 5% −$53
sports 3% +$71
politics 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.1% -33.1% 20% 20% -19.4%
≤30d 20 +52.6% +38.0% 20% 20% -3.6%
≤90d 20 +52.6% +38.0% 20% 20% -3.6%
all 31 +20.8% +9.3% 23% 19% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 19% -33.8%
10% -1.2% 19% -40.1%
15% -10.7% 19% -45.9%
20% -19.5% 16% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$62 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage556d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
How many tweets will @DonaldJTrumpJr post from Jan 18th to 25th? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $33 +$25 +74%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $39 −$6 -15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $64 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$52 +163%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $41 −$9 -22%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$60 -60%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $530 −$139 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $58 −$48 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $24 −$5 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $184 −$73 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $254 +$123 +49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $17 +$272 +1607%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $5 −$1 -14%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $185 −$119 -65%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $102 −$15 -14%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025? Nov 01 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday? Jul 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16? Jan 17 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 17 $248 +$11 +5%
Israel announces ceasefire by January 17? Jan 17 $142 +$91 +64%
Trudeau resigns by Friday? Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump transgender executive order on Day 1? Jan 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? Jan 17 $39 +$19 +49%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Jan 02 $193 −$83 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 23m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $58 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $57 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $64 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $84 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 37¢ $32 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 45¢ $41 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $2 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $169 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $189 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $136 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $146 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.12 (match) · 107 history records