Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec75…9a23 crypto 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+11%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 57L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$63
14 days+$60
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$65
crypto 25% +$13
politics 15% −$13
sports 6% +$15
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.1% +2.3% 48% 38% +5.5%
≤30d 37 +6.4% -3.7% 49% 41% +4.9%
≤90d 44 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 39% +1.3%
all 100 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 35% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 35% +1.1%
10% -14.9% 31% -8.6%
15% -23.1% 22% -17.4%
20% -30.6% 16% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)100 / 118
History coverage116d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+32%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 45¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 +$5 +5%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$7 +650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$37 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 +$10 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$4 +32%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +396%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $35 −$10 -30%
Will Serena Williams Win Return Doubles Match at HSBC Championships? Jun 09 $12 +$5 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 +$1 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $5 +$13 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5 +$2 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? May 05 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 01 $2 +$4 +180%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 17 $0 +$2 +331%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 16 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 10h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 45¢ $1 11h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 30h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $62 30h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 29¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.36 · official $49.40 (match) · 286 history records