Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec7a…a1f2 crypto 1357 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,247 (-4%) realized −$14,247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%793W / 564L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$719est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$424
7 days+$435
14 days+$429
30 days−$3,919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$12,953
sports 37% −$4,378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +15.1% +4.2% 71% 68% -0.3%
≤30d 462 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 54% -14.5%
≤90d 982 -12.8% -21.1% 55% 49% -16.7%
all 1357 -2.7% -12.0% 58% 54% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 54% -13.7%
10% -20.4% 46% -21.9%
15% -28.1% 35% -29.5%
20% -35.1% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$184 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses793 / 564
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$719
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1357 / 1357
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$277
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1357 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $85 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$74 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$49 +32%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $101 −$37 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$30 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$32 +41%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $291 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$11 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $201 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$54 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$33 -91%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $201 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$3 -6%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $66 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $147 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$12 +25%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $45 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$18 +31%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $75 −$21 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$63 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $134 −$31 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $111 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $85 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $83 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $32 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $13 51m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $63 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $46 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 71¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records