Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

EC 0xec7f…7d79 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$93 (-7%) realized −$53 · open −$40

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$250per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$498now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-54.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-49.8%	-54.6%	25%	25%	-20.7%
≤30d	4	-49.8%	-54.6%	25%	25%	-20.7%
≤90d	4	-49.8%	-54.6%	25%	25%	-20.7%
all	4	-49.8%	-54.6%	25%	25%	-20.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.6%	25%	-20.7%
10%	-58.9%	25%	-28.3%
15%	-62.9%	25%	-35.2%
20%	-66.5%	0%	-41.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$167 vs −$85 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$498

Realized−$53

Unrealized−$40

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$250

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay?	No	36¢	33¢	$538	$498	−$40 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the fight be won by submission?	Jun 15	$44	−$17	-39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$424	+$167	+40%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Jun 15	$141	−$138	-98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay?	BUY No	36¢	$500	49m
Will the fight be won by submission?	SELL Yes	11¢	$27	1h
Will the fight be won by submission?	BUY Yes	17¢	$44	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$591	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	71¢	$424	3h
Fight to Go the Distance?	BUY Yes	32¢	$141	4h
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay?	BUY No	31¢	$38	4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	56¢	$101	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.29 · official $498.29 (match) · 8 history records