Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec81…b674 crypto 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$635 (-11%) realized −$635 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%277W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$356
other 9% −$84
finance 5% +$4
sports 3% −$75
politics 2% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 156 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 293 -3.9% -13.1% 94% 0% -20.6%
all 294 -3.5% -12.7% 94% 0% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -19.7%
10% -21.1% 0% -27.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -34.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 36% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$46 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$635
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses277 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage231d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 25h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.09 · official $56.00 · 1980 history records