Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
EC 0xec82…3385 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$167 (+24%) realized +$167 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$47
14 days+$31
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1
sports 42% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +60.0% +44.7% 64% 27% +2.3%
≤30d 23 +38.2% +25.0% 43% 26% +14.4%
≤90d 24 +36.4% +23.4% 42% 25% +5.3%
all 24 +36.4% +23.4% 42% 25% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.4% 25% +5.3%
10% +11.6% 21% -4.8%
15% +0.8% 17% -14.0%
20% -9.1% 12% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 90% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage35d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sadio Mané: 1+ assists Jun 23 $76 +$1 +2%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $60 +$7 +12%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -38%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists Jun 20 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$76 +743%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $10 −$3 -24%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? May 31 $3 +$1 +23%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $10 +$82 +793%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $102 −$36 -35%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $199 −$9 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sadio Mané: 1+ assists SELL Yes 97¢ $78 1h
Sadio Mané: 1+ assists BUY Yes 95¢ $76 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $67 5h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 88¢ $60 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $10 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $6 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 26h
Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists SELL Yes 95¢ $2 2d
Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $31 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $50 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $60 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $26 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $10 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 16d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $6 16d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $1 16d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 16d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 63¢ $1 16d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records