Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec82…6eaa
other · 630 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$7,270 +185%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$204 · open +$1,312
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,527
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$1,312
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses182 / 166
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions500
Markets (closed)348 / 630
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1235.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 500 History 348 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$204
14 days+$204
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? Yes 8¢ 36¢ $15 $70 +$54 (+350%)
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive? Yes 4¢ 35¢ $8 $70 +$61 (+749%)
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 33¢ $14 $67 +$53 (+377%)
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? No 6¢ 50¢ $8 $66 +$58 (+714%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 10¢ 64¢ $10 $64 +$54 (+540%)
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam? No 9¢ 55¢ $10 $60 +$50 (+506%)
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $13 $47 +$35 (+272%)
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 10¢ 43¢ $11 $46 +$36 (+340%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 3¢ 35¢ $4 $46 +$42 (+986%)
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? Yes 6¢ 40¢ $6 $40 +$34 (+575%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $0 $36 +$36 (+18150%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 8¢ 37¢ $7 $35 +$28 (+391%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Yes 1¢ 35¢ $1 $35 +$34 (+3063%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 10¢ 44¢ $8 $33 +$26 (+340%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $14 $31 +$18 (+130%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $3 $31 +$27 (+829%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Yes 3¢ 29¢ $3 $29 +$25 (+771%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? Yes 3¢ 42¢ $2 $28 +$26 (+1300%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 4¢ 27¢ $4 $27 +$23 (+560%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 27¢ $5 $27 +$22 (+468%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 10¢ 32¢ $8 $26 +$18 (+220%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? No 2¢ 39¢ $1 $26 +$24 (+1852%)
Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $6 $24 +$18 (+328%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $8 $23 +$15 (+191%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $7 +$9 +121%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $17 +$9 +51%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $13 +$5 +36%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 14 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $19 +$7 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$19 +156%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 14 $0 +$1 +611%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +381%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +67%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +54%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$8 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$14 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $43 +$7 +16%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $23 −$3 -15%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $13 −$3 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% +$1,254
tech 13% +$27
world 12% +$90
politics 9% +$25
finance 2% +$45
economics 1% −$5
culture 1% +$48
sports 1% +$24
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $8 8m
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 11m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 12m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18m
Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 21m
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 23m
Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary ele BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24m
Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary ele BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30m
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30m
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 30m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 +61.6% +46.2% 52% 44% -3.6%
≤30d 348 +61.6% +46.2% 52% 44% -3.6%
≤90d 348 +61.6% +46.2% 52% 44% -3.6%
all 348 +61.6% +46.2% 52% 44% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1235.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.2% 44% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here +32.2% 34% -12.8%
15% +19.5% 27% -21.2%
20% +7.7% 23% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,527.25 · official $7,844.75 · 3500 history records