Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec83…7014 other 430 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,804 (-21%) realized −$2,628 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%153W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$525
7 days+$446
14 days+$698
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$838
world 28% −$1,865
sports 24% +$299
weather 17% −$338
politics 2% +$34
crypto 0% +$14
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +46.5% +32.5% 43% 43% +11.4%
≤30d 256 +14.4% +3.5% 38% 38% -1.1%
≤90d 419 +3.4% -6.4% 35% 34% -30.7%
all 424 +3.8% -6.1% 36% 35% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 35% -28.1%
10% -15.1% 29% -35.0%
15% -23.3% 26% -41.3%
20% -30.8% 23% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$975
Realized−$2,628
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses153 / 271
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)424 / 430
History coverage592d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 45¢ 100¢ $117 $262 +$145 (+124%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 76¢ $127 $198 +$71 (+56%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 61¢ 22¢ $500 $185 −$315 (-63%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 100¢ $67 $163 +$96 (+144%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 40¢ $63 $104 +$41 (+65%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 24¢ $121 $62 −$59 (-49%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$192 +1420%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $45 +$157 +344%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $59 +$41 +70%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $169 +$31 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $105 −$5 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $93 +$109 +116%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $54 +$48 +90%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $168 +$34 +20%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $32 +$70 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $23 −$2 -9%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$75 +291%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$86 +596%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $61 +$39 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $43 +$57 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $44 +$56 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $64 −$63 -99%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 +$29 +474%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$5 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$12 +146%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $47 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $50 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $47 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $50 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $26 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $30 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 58¢ $59 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $35 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $47 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 84¢ $84 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 84¢ $84 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $36 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $47 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.98 · official $974.68 (match) · 832 history records