Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec84…3753 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 58L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$1
sports 23% $0
other 12% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 74 -6.7% -15.6% 22% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 4% -9.2%
10% -23.7% 3% -17.8%
15% -31.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -37.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×15.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage556d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Jun 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? Dec 31 $37 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 18? Oct 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? Oct 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? Oct 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 11 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Feb 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Feb 11 $15 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $10 $0 -0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $4 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $0 $0 -9%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $0 $0 -54%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 31 $0 $0 -25%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 31 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 31 $0 $0 +100%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 31 $0 $0 -61%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 31 $0 $0 -48%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 31 $0 $0 +57%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 31 $0 $0 -34%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -9%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $0 $0 -8%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $0 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $0 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 153d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $37 176d
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $37 232d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 240d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 251d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $36 257d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? BUY No 100¢ $36 266d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 499d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? BUY No 94¢ $9 532d
Solana above $215 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $15 532d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $5 542d
Southampton wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
Southampton wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
Leicester City wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
Leicester City wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 542d
Fulham wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 542d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.94 · official $36.94 (match) · 157 history records