Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec86…60e4
weather · 334 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$8,136 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,261 · open −$191
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47,349
Realized+$8,261
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses93 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions227
Markets (closed)109 / 334
History coverage2d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day1594.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 227 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,261
7 days+$8,261
14 days+$8,261
30 days+$8,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,147 $1,192 +$45 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,185 $1,185 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,107 $1,152 +$46 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,113 $1,147 +$33 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,009 $1,010 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 89¢ $976 $958 −$17 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $949 $956 +$7 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 92¢ 87¢ $962 $917 −$45 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 96¢ 92¢ $877 $841 −$36 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $793 $827 +$34 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $671 $693 +$22 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $639 $639 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $566 $566 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $559 $560 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? No 95¢ 92¢ $560 $543 −$17 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $511 $519 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 86¢ 72¢ $611 $505 −$106 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $499 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $477 $477 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $363 $466 +$104 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $457 $462 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $457 $459 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $458 $459 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $431 $433 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $417 $423 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $710 +$408 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $612 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 +$321 +361%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $870 +$142 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $411 +$337 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $803 +$352 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $367 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $153 +$107 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $112 +$128 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$95 +246%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $229 +$157 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $169 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $270 +$21 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $198 +$318 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $489 +$28 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $122 +$40 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$89 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $814 +$347 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,260 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $136 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $213 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $172 +$492 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $914 +$80 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $529 +$354 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $107 +$324 +303%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $256 +$32 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $192 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$305 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $112 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $486 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $359 +$734 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $441 +$47 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $668 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $584 +$42 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $507 +$44 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$700 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $476 +$680 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $285 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$44 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$8,069
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $31 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $73 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $72 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $24 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $70 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+74.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +93.1% +74.7% 85% 42% +15.3%
≤30d 109 +93.1% +74.7% 85% 42% +15.3%
≤90d 109 +93.1% +74.7% 85% 42% +15.3%
all 109 +93.1% +74.7% 85% 42% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1594.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +74.7% 42% +15.3%
10% ← realistic here +58.0% 35% +4.3%
15% +42.7% 34% -5.8%
20% +28.7% 30% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,348.67 · official $47,375.12 (match) · 3500 history records