Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec87…43f9 weather 465 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-1%) realized −$198 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%331W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$29
14 days+$92
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$250
world 0% +$5
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.5% -20.8% 82% 12% -10.7%
≤30d 87 -6.0% -14.9% 84% 24% -11.8%
≤90d 461 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 52% -10.9%
all 463 -4.1% -13.2% 71% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 52% -10.8%
10% -21.5% 34% -19.4%
15% -29.1% 13% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses331 / 132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)463 / 465
History coverage93d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $320 $333 +$13 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $391 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $301 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $140 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $120 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $208 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $180 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $381 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $260 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $461 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $161 +$27 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $140 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $421 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $211 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 05 $190 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $376 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 04 $220 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $351 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 03 $280 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $250 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 02 $241 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $422 −$420 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $80 −$80 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $158 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $301 +$31 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 31 $177 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 31 $261 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $241 +$21 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $161 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $60 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 29 $312 +$44 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.14 · official $415.14 (match) · 1832 history records