Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec89…5899 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$262 (+10%) realized +$255 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$364
14 days+$265
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$29
other 49% +$255
crypto 2% −$15
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +45.7% +31.8% 64% 64% +24.6%
≤30d 56 -5.8% -14.7% 43% 43% +1.7%
≤90d 92 -0.6% -10.1% 48% 48% +1.5%
all 94 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 48% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 48% +1.1%
10% -18.8% 45% -8.5%
15% -26.6% 39% -17.4%
20% -33.8% 29% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 49
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions10
Markets (closed)94 / 104
History coverage112d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+11%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $91 +$41 +46%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $58 +$16 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$80 +79%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw? May 31 $13 −$7 -53%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs 1WIN (BO3) - IZI WEX Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$11 +37%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $77 +$161 +210%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 11h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 11h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 25h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 34h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 34h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $30 42h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $30 42h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 42h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $30 42h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $30 42h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 2d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.94 · official $636.09 (match) · 225 history records