Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec8f…8df8
crypto · 99 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$516,397 -188%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$435,645 · open −$213,573
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48,759
Realized−$435,645
Unrealized−$213,573
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses49 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Open positions43
Markets (closed)174 / 99
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2,779
Trades / day208.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 43 History 174 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435,554
7 days−$435,554
14 days−$435,554
30 days−$435,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4,167 $12,875 +$8,709 (+209%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,326 $5,321 +$995 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,911 $4,576 +$665 (+17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,167 $4,125 −$42 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $565 $3,271 +$2,706 (+479%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $652 $3,072 +$2,420 (+371%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,333 $2,210 −$2,123 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,166 $2,125 −$2,042 (-49%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4,333 $1,690 −$2,643 (-61%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,650 $1,192 −$1,457 (-55%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3,960 $1,069 −$2,891 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,166 $875 −$3,292 (-79%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $650 −$3,683 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,166 $625 −$3,542 (-85%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $390 −$3,943 (-91%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $390 −$3,943 (-91%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $390 −$3,943 (-91%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $390 −$3,943 (-91%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $390 −$3,943 (-91%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,167 $375 −$3,792 (-91%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,166 $375 −$3,792 (-91%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $125,000 $375 −$124,625 (-100%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,574 $330 −$1,243 (-79%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $130 −$4,203 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4,333 $130 −$4,203 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21? Jun 13 $4,009 −$8,098 -202%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,333 −$4,333 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? Jun 13 $5,778 −$11,600 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $5,312 −$10,639 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $491 −$988 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $4,857 −$9,774 -201%
Bitcoin above 75,800 on May 27, 11AM ET? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15? Jun 13 $4,030 −$8,150 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $3,201 −$6,452 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? Jun 13 $352 −$721 -205%
Bitcoin above 74,400 on May 27, 10AM ET? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? Jun 13 $3,228 −$6,533 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $2,642 −$5,294 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Jun 13 $4,086 −$8,188 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? Jun 13 $72 −$144 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14? Jun 13 $3,066 −$6,204 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $754 −$1,520 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $68 −$137 -200%
Bitcoin above 74,200 on May 27, 12PM ET? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $5,108 −$10,299 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 7? Jun 13 $8,064 −$16,290 -202%
Bitcoin above 74,600 on May 27, 1PM ET? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 10? Jun 13 $2,292 −$4,609 -201%
Bitcoin above 76,200 on May 27, 8AM ET? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $4,497 −$9,072 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $1,898 −$3,824 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 6? Jun 13 $5,186 −$10,472 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $521 −$1,066 -205%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 10? Jun 13 $969 −$1,970 -203%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 7? Jun 13 $409 −$832 -204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 25? Jun 13 $2,014 −$4,032 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1? Jun 13 $169 −$340 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $5,058 −$10,177 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 15? Jun 13 $2,765 −$5,560 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 9? Jun 13 $10,453 −$20,976 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? Jun 13 $3,059 −$6,129 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 17? Jun 13 $234 −$475 -203%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 30? Jun 13 $66 −$132 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 9? Jun 13 $5,822 −$11,673 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 24? Jun 13 $25,683 −$51,397 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8? Jun 13 $94 −$190 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 6? Jun 13 $20 −$40 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1? Jun 13 $1,407 −$2,820 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? Jun 13 $5,711 −$11,489 -201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 25? Jun 13 $34 −$69 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 2? Jun 13 $2,028 −$4,086 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 6? Jun 13 $3,681 −$7,426 -202%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 27? Jun 13 $39 −$78 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $486 −$991 -204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 7? Jun 13 $2,877 −$5,811 -202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% −$213,573
crypto 4% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 8m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 8m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $33 12m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 12m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 13m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 16m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 16m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 16m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 17m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $126 19m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 19m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 19m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19m
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $180 22m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 24m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 26m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 26m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $100 27m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 27m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 28m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $150 28m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 29m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 174 -24.0% -31.2% 28% 16% -94.3%
≤90d 174 -24.0% -31.2% 28% 16% -94.3%
all 174 -24.0% -31.2% 28% 16% -94.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover208.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 16% -94.3%
10% -37.8% 9% -94.9%
15% ← realistic here -43.8% 6% -95.4%
20% -49.3% 5% -95.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,759.15 · official $48,758.36 (match) · 3500 history records