Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec91…fe29 crypto 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%123W / 8L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$65
other 21% −$126
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 69 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 131 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses123 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage210d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $434 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $433 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $432 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $431 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $431 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $426 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $421 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $420 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $420 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $419 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $417 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $418 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $413 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $332 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $413 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $411 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $411 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $410 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $409 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $434 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $433 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $433 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $432 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $432 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $431 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $431 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $430 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $430 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $429 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $426 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $422 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $4 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $421 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $421 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $4 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $421 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $420 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $420 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $419 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $418 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $417 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $417 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.82 · official $105.82 (match) · 301 history records