Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec92…6b59 sports 427 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40,297 (+29%) realized +$44,723 · open −$4,426
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%109W / 327L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$2,770est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$15,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,956
7 days−$2,956
14 days−$3,673
30 days+$25,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$36,713
other 37% −$5,290
crypto 1% −$783
finance 0% −$216
world 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -99.4% -99.4% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤30d 291 +3.4% -6.5% 21% 20% -10.7%
≤90d 436 +7.3% -2.9% 25% 24% -14.6%
all 436 +7.3% -2.9% 25% 24% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 24% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 23% -22.8%
15% -20.7% 23% -30.3%
20% -28.5% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$839 vs −$182 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$15,201
Realized+$44,723
Unrealized−$4,426
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses109 / 327
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,770
Open positions5
Markets (closed)436 / 427
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 436 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $11,655 $7,635 −$4,020 (-34%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,299 $4,280 +$981 (+30%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2,523 $2,290 −$234 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,143 $993 −$1,150 (-54%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? Yes 46¢ 24¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 325 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $433 −$433 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 21 $484 −$484 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe Jun 21 $154 −$141 -91%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winne Jun 21 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $289 −$289 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $323 −$323 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Fi Jun 21 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 21 $216 −$216 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $289 −$289 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,071 −$285 -27%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,482 −$163 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $494 −$41 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $966 −$149 -15%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $884 −$57 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,150 −$128 -11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $556 +$104 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $801 −$783 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $4,998 +$1,916 +38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $802 +$53 +7%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $80 +$7,021 +8750%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E May 31 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $212 −$207 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $367 −$367 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $222 −$222 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $335 −$1 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $223 +$177 +79%
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw? May 31 $217 +$483 +223%
Will Mexico vs. Australia end in a draw? May 31 $224 −$224 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $3,670 −$3,196 -87%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner May 30 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 30 $167 −$167 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $522 −$522 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $231 +$169 +73%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1,367 +$5,299 +388%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $500 +$24,989 +4998%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $520 −$513 -99%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $674 −$660 -98%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $383 −$383 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $226 −$222 -98%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $233 +$567 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 11m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 13m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 20m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 26m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 29m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 32m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 33m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 35m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 50m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 54m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $75 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,200.79 · official $15,231.48 (match) · 3500 history records