Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xec93…f56b other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-4%) realized −$237 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$30
14 days−$25
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$188
other 34% −$23
weather 12% −$55
politics 4% +$3
sports 1% +$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -10.3% -18.9% 24% 24% +8.5%
≤30d 46 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 15% -14.4%
≤90d 47 -13.3% -21.6% 45% 15% -13.4%
all 47 -13.3% -21.6% 45% 15% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 15% -13.4%
10% -29.1% 13% -21.7%
15% -35.9% 11% -29.2%
20% -42.2% 11% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)47 / 55
History coverage35d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? No 96¢ 98¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 97¢ 100¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 76¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 8¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -78%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 +$5 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -97%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$26 +474%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$30 +388%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 +$22 +76%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +79%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $59 −$30 -51%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $142 −$36 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 05 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $85 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,272 −$92 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,762 −$117 -7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,998 −$36 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 96¢ $85 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 4h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $74 4h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $88 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $34 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 77¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $24 4d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Discord IPO before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $3 5d
Discord IPO before 2027? BUY No 40¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.89 · official $359.89 (match) · 111 history records