Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec94…2f1e crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$22
other 15% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 38% -13.5%
≤30d 24 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 24 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 38% -13.5%
all 24 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.2% 38% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -49.5% 25% -21.8%
15% -54.4% 21% -29.4%
20% -58.9% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 29¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$26 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $38 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.79 · official $4.74 (match) · 47 history records