Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec94…9053 sports 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$356 (-8%) realized −$375 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%169W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$28
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$173
crypto 12% −$20
other 6% −$152
politics 2% −$6
culture 2% −$17
tech 1% +$4
economics 1% −$7
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.3% -15.3% 69% 69% -23.4%
≤30d 177 -3.9% -13.0% 71% 58% -15.6%
≤90d 225 -5.0% -14.1% 66% 53% -15.3%
all 280 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 48% -17.6%
10% -21.3% 26% -25.5%
15% -28.9% 12% -32.7%
20% -35.9% 9% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$375
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses169 / 111
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage222d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 −$7 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +40%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 +$2 +25%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $25 −$20 -80%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $20 +$7 +35%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $36 −$16 -45%
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $20 +$6 +29%
CD Huachipato vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $20 +$4 +19%
FBC Melgar vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $20 +$3 +13%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $20 +$2 +9%
Londrina EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $19 +$3 +18%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $20 +$5 +27%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $20 +$4 +20%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $20 +$4 +21%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 4.5 May 31 $20 +$4 +19%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 +$2 +11%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 May 30 $42 −$19 -46%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 +$1 +5%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 30 $20 +$2 +8%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $44 −$20 -45%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $16 +$4 +27%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $19 +$1 +3%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $19 −$15 -82%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $20 +$2 +9%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 1.5 May 30 $17 +$4 +24%
CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 1.5 May 30 $20 +$4 +21%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club Guabirá: O/U 2.5 May 29 $38 −$16 -42%
SK Brann vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 3.5 May 29 $20 +$5 +27%
Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 4.5 May 29 $7 +$1 +8%
Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 3.5 May 29 $20 +$3 +17%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 29 $20 +$5 +24%
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $36 −$14 -38%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $38 −$20 -52%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 May 28 $20 +$6 +29%
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5 May 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $42 −$19 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $9 28m
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 19h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 20h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $8 22h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 25h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 25h
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $9 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $9 43h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 3d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 5d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 5d
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $20 12d
CD Huachipato vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 14d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $19 14d
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 14d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $18 14d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $20 14d
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $20 14d
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 14d
FBC Melgar vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 14d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 14d
Londrina EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $19 14d
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 14d
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $20 14d
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.74 · official $10.74 (match) · 810 history records