Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec96…2f69 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+9%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 53% +0.2%
≤30d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 53% +0.2%
≤90d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 53% +0.2%
all 15 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 53% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 53% +0.2%
10% -15.7% 53% -9.4%
15% -23.8% 53% -18.1%
20% -31.3% 47% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 54¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $88 +$52 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $47 +$34 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $24 +$12 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$18 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $31 +$30 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $11 +$16 +152%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $25 +$25 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $57 16m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $25 41m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $32 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $33 42h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $15 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $55 44h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $5 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $24 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $12 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $47 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $6 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $20 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $31 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $34 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $11 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $21 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $11 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $45 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $25 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.78 · official $111.78 (match) · 35 history records