Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec9f…f47b other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+3%) realized +$72 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$31
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$54
crypto 8% +$67
sports 7% +$1
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -56.6% -60.7% 26% 26% -5.9%
≤30d 31 -45.1% -50.4% 32% 32% -6.2%
≤90d 31 -45.1% -50.4% 32% 32% -6.2%
all 31 -45.1% -50.4% 32% 32% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 32% -6.2%
10% -55.1% 32% -15.2%
15% -59.5% 32% -23.4%
20% -63.4% 19% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$15 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 12¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 12¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+108%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-49%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 +$67 +64%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $105 +$64 +61%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 +$54 +51%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 +$42 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $42 +$33 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$22 +106%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 15h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 12¢ $16 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 31h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 16¢ $37 32h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $0 32h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 6¢ $1 32h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $11 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 39h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $105 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 4d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.40 · official $290.43 (match) · 75 history records