Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EC 0xeca0…e8f8 world 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$62,341 (+13%) realized +$21,619 · open +$7,933
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%147W / 78L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,528per market
Trades / day122.0pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$68,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,287
7 days+$5,676
14 days+$8,962
30 days+$21,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$17,178
politics 13% +$4,754
other 9% +$5,289
tech 2% +$1,563
sports 2% +$158
crypto 1% +$374
economics 0% +$223
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 37% -6.3%
≤30d 225 +36.2% +23.2% 65% 42% -4.0%
≤90d 225 +36.2% +23.2% 65% 42% -4.0%
all 225 +36.2% +23.2% 65% 42% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.2% 42% -4.0%
10% +11.4% 31% -13.2%
15% ← realistic here +0.6% 26% -21.6%
20% -9.2% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,380) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$116 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$68,149
Realized+$21,619
Unrealized+$7,933
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses147 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions144
Markets (closed)225 / 311
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1,528
Trades / day122.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 144 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 60¢ 98¢ $2,508 $4,083 +$1,575 (+63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $3,864 $3,873 +$8 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $2,155 $2,685 +$530 (+25%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 58¢ 90¢ $1,730 $2,685 +$955 (+55%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 65¢ 82¢ $1,958 $2,475 +$517 (+26%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $1,662 $1,981 +$319 (+19%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,807 $1,870 +$63 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,425 $1,485 +$60 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 61¢ 76¢ $915 $1,133 +$218 (+24%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $771 $998 +$226 (+29%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $727 $994 +$268 (+37%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 91¢ 99¢ $911 $992 +$81 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 94¢ 99¢ $940 $988 +$48 (+5%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 60¢ 95¢ $604 $955 +$351 (+58%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 42¢ 95¢ $422 $948 +$527 (+125%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $900 $940 +$40 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $921 $923 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $1,058 $890 −$168 (-16%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 60¢ 89¢ $601 $885 +$284 (+47%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 88¢ $342 $885 +$542 (+158%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 80¢ $880 $805 −$75 (-9%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 43¢ 46¢ $721 $783 +$62 (+9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $575 $740 +$165 (+29%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $631 $736 +$105 (+17%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $750 $735 −$15 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3,381 +$144 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26,907 +$761 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2,370 +$39 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $97 +$51 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $380 $0 +0%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $237 +$163 +69%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $55 −$23 -41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $417 −$417 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,136 −$139 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,824 +$252 +14%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $1,891 +$556 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $3,615 −$73 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $4,198 +$283 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$30 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3,576 +$183 +5%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $33,000 $0 +0%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 13 $486 −$12 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $6,902 +$157 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $216 −$3 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $452 −$9 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10,991 +$1,165 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $557 −$270 -48%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $465 −$465 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $3,337 +$91 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $2,097 +$670 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $891 +$109 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,244 +$242 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2,281 +$218 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $625 +$21 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $72 +$53 +73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $38 +$4 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $145 +$55 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $615 +$173 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $819 +$16 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $961 +$39 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,783 +$197 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,138 +$251 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $76 +$74 +97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $276 −$22 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $843 −$216 -26%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $314 +$136 +43%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $104 +$46 +45%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,496 $0 +0%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $59 −$12 -21%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? Jun 11 $458 −$329 -72%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,579 +$274 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,895 +$93 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $2,056 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,100 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $811 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $83 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,164 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 10m
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $299 14m
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 46¢ $165 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,627 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $59 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $89 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2,765 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 33m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $5 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $223 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $467 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,034 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,895 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,900 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,900 47m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $440 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,925 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,891 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,149.34 · official $68,299.76 (match) · 3500 history records