Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xeca4…5ef0 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$6
other 12% −$12
politics 11% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 8% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -4.7% -13.8% 37% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 19 -4.7% -13.8% 37% 5% -9.5%
all 36 -5.9% -14.8% 33% 3% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 3% -10.8%
10% -23.0% 0% -19.3%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage455d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $63 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $66 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $105 −$5 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 06 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 23 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $15 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $36 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $20 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $32 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records