Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xeca5…fa46 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 20% +$1
politics 18% +$6
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% +$1
sports 3% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 12% -8.6%
all 34 -0.9% -10.4% 35% 9% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -7.8%
10% -18.9% 3% -16.7%
15% -26.8% 3% -24.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage475d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will Solana dip to $140 in June? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $14 +$7 +46%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 07 $17 $0 -2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $18 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$2 +10%
Will "Conclave" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $12 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $17 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $30 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $43 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $43 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $45 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $40 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 64¢ $14 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 64¢ $23 26d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $17 357d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 358d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 358d
Will Solana dip to $140 in June? BUY No 0¢ $0 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.63 · official $42.63 (match) · 99 history records