Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xeca7…9567 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$330 (+3%) realized +$379 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 51L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$112
14 days−$270
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$62
politics 24% +$393
world 19% −$114
sports 8% +$19
crypto 2% −$92
tech 2% +$18
finance 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.7% -24.7% 30% 30% -24.4%
≤30d 40 -9.7% -18.3% 38% 30% -6.5%
≤90d 44 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 32% -6.6%
all 81 -16.5% -24.4% 37% 27% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 27% -7.6%
10% -31.7% 25% -16.4%
15% -38.3% 16% -24.5%
20% -44.3% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$28 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$1,177
Realized+$379
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 51
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions16
Markets (closed)81 / 97
History coverage215d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 40¢ 42¢ $300 $316 +$16 (+5%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $180 $156 −$24 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $117 $102 −$15 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $40 $75 +$35 (+88%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $74 +$14 (+24%)
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $57 −$19 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $35 +$15 (+73%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $12 −$23 (-65%)
Will Thibaut Courtois win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $28 $11 −$17 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16 −$6 -36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$2 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 −$61 -86%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $72 −$34 -48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 +$32 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 +$42 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$25 +83%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $120 −$5 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $160 −$15 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$2 -5%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $155 −$72 -47%
Argentina vs. Honduras: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $36 −$35 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $60 −$19 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $46 +$1 +1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 27 $935 +$256 +27%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$18 +172%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 25 $733 +$10 +1%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 25 $20 −$12 -60%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $244 +$56 +23%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $65 +$39 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $341 +$25 +7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 22 $230 −$9 -4%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 20 $61 +$15 +24%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 18 $136 +$8 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $24 −$20 -85%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 08 $35 +$8 +23%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $29 +$6 +22%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Mar 03 $149 −$41 -27%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Feb 28 $40 −$39 -97%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $168 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 46h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $35 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 2d
Will Thibaut Courtois win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 48¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $39 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $7 3d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $94 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $15 3d
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 62¢ $25 4d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $16 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,176.77 · official $1,176.89 (match) · 341 history records