Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EC 0xeca9…c925 politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$5
sports 36% +$4
politics 18% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -4.0% -13.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -3.0% -12.3% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage97d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $598 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 30 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $1,260 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1,558 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 2h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 3h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 4h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 11h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 13h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 15h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 17h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 68d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 75d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $598 75d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $598 84d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 84d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes 1¢ $1 84d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 84d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 84d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,668 84d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,670 90d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL Yes 1¢ $12 91d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,259 91d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 91d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 91d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 91d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,563 91d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 95d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,191 96d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY Yes 1¢ $14 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.61 · official $426.61 (match) · 129 history records