Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecaa…77a9
politics · 78 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$259,908 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$347,786 · open +$104,317
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,151,928
Realized−$347,786
Unrealized+$104,317
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses48 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions36
Markets (closed)167 / 78
History coverage22d
Avg bet$15,401
Trades / day153.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 36 History 167 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500,699
7 days−$526,236
14 days−$304,404
30 days−$347,786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 96¢ $86,023 $140,953 +$54,930 (+64%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $112,149 $138,465 +$26,317 (+23%)
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 66¢ 100¢ $72,859 $110,485 +$37,626 (+52%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $53,296 $109,997 +$56,700 (+106%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 97¢ $72,389 $103,566 +$31,177 (+43%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 88¢ $55,223 $72,425 +$17,202 (+31%)
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $44,802 $65,785 +$20,983 (+47%)
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $49,894 $64,696 +$14,802 (+30%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $36,755 $47,134 +$10,379 (+28%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $32,533 $36,391 +$3,858 (+12%)
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party? No 69¢ 100¢ $22,263 $32,450 +$10,187 (+46%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 58¢ 99¢ $17,493 $29,797 +$12,304 (+70%)
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $18,143 $26,479 +$8,337 (+46%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $14,940 $25,245 +$10,305 (+69%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $19,305 $20,865 +$1,560 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $13,552 $14,318 +$766 (+6%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $10,602 $13,897 +$3,294 (+31%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 79¢ 81¢ $12,156 $12,513 +$357 (+3%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 65¢ 93¢ $8,315 $11,937 +$3,622 (+44%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $8,051 $8,332 +$281 (+3%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 79¢ 57¢ $11,000 $7,935 −$3,065 (-28%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? No 79¢ 97¢ $6,018 $7,350 +$1,332 (+22%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $14,496 $6,434 −$8,062 (-56%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $6,990 $5,412 −$1,578 (-23%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $8,236 $5,241 −$2,994 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $112,149 +$26,317 +24%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 12 $53,296 +$56,700 +106%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Jun 12 $49,894 +$14,802 +30%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 12 $200 +$503 +251%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC ma Jun 12 $318 +$331 +104%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Jun 12 $150 +$122 +82%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 12 $162 +$82 +50%
Will between 219 and 220 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next fun Jun 12 $99 +$63 +64%
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Award Jun 12 $117 +$12 +10%
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m? Jun 12 $43 +$80 +188%
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? Jun 12 $63 +$37 +59%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Jun 12 $69 +$30 +43%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Jun 12 $77 +$12 +16%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? Jun 12 $76 +$13 +17%
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less Jun 12 $22 +$39 +178%
Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 12 $35 +$19 +54%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between Jun 12 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +64%
AP calls Georgia by 8:00 AM Nov 6? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +170%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 12 $3,981 −$3,981 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Jun 12 $0 +$10,360 +2158240%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m Jun 12 $0 +$12,005 +6175629%
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening? Jun 12 $0 +$11,779 +11826139%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jun 12 $0 +$21,069 +32664692%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jun 12 $3,833 −$14,523 -379%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? Jun 12 $14,151 −$27,338 -193%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $7,467 −$14,486 -194%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 12 $18,803 −$18,803 -100%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Jun 12 $41,833 −$63,552 -152%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Republicans control 220 seats in the House after the election? Jun 12 $225 −$1,725 -766%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Jun 12 $1,830 −$8,341 -456%
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? Jun 12 $7,133 −$7,133 -100%
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutal Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary? Jun 12 $3,312 −$3,312 -100%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jun 12 $1,481 −$2,861 -193%
Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 6? Jun 12 $2,171 −$2,171 -100%
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Jun 12 $8,883 −$23,475 -264%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Jun 12 $18,748 −$18,748 -100%
Will Republicans control 221 seats in the House after the election? Jun 12 $7,122 −$19,071 -268%
Trump wins every swing state? Jun 12 $2,315 −$4,198 -181%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Jun 12 $12,422 −$12,422 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? Jun 12 $4,077 −$5,950 -146%
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academ Jun 12 $0 −$279 -1452151%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un Jun 12 $1,788 −$4,261 -238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% +$97,800
world 26% +$146,093
culture 11% +$13,570
sports 4% +$3,438
tech 2% −$547
other 2% −$3,063
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 14m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $274 16m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 19m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 21m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,100 21m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 23m
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 32m
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 37m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,476 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 22¢ $48 2h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 3h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $50 3h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 3h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $39 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -0.9% -10.3% 23% 22% -49.2%
≤30d 167 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 28% -20.4%
≤90d 167 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 28% -20.4%
all 167 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 28% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover153.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 28% -20.4%
10% -17.1% 23% -28.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 20% -35.0%
20% -32.4% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151,928.36 · official $1,151,928.37 (match) · 3500 history records