Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecac…921b other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 25% −$21
politics 8% −$8
crypto 8% −$5
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage137d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $684 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $354 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $544 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $432 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $318 +$2 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $591 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $705 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $328 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $438 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $303 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $821 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $402 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $257 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 13h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 33h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 37h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 42h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 43h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 45h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 46h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.38 · official $61.38 (match) · 1396 history records