Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecad…875c other 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,835 (-11%) realized −$1,819 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%45W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$56
politics 12% −$1,185
sports 10% −$542
world 1% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 197 -11.1% -19.6% 23% 22% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 22% -20.0%
10% -27.3% 22% -27.7%
15% -34.3% 22% -34.6%
20% -40.8% 22% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$68 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized−$1,819
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses45 / 152
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)197 / 204
History coverage707d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $185 $182 −$3 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 07 $35 −$35 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? May 07 $49 −$48 -98%
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Apr 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $48 +$152 +317%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $159 +$141 +89%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc end in a draw? Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw? Mar 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $57 +$243 +426%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $195 +$105 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $93 +$207 +223%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $56 +$144 +257%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $48 +$252 +529%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $72 +$228 +317%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $141 +$159 +113%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $87 −$87 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $57 +$243 +426%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $40 −$35 -88%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 14 $102 +$144 +141%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $151 −$151 -100%
Will NK Celje vs. AEK end in a draw? Mar 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $63 +$178 +284%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $84 +$216 +257%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Mar 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $49 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $44 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 52d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 52d
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 73d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 73d
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 73d
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 73d
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 73d
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 73d
Will AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 73d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.22 · official $428.22 (match) · 567 history records