Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecb1…5da3
other · 117 markets active 15h ago
0.0score
−$64,777 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,574 · open −$297
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$169,218
Realized−$16,574
Unrealized−$297
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses51 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2,764
Open positions16
Markets (closed)115 / 117
Avg bet$8,394
Trades / day74.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 16 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29,996
7 days−$34,936
14 days+$46,330
30 days−$26,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $80,370 $86,776 +$6,406 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 82¢ $36,570 $44,869 +$8,298 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $8,727 $9,294 +$567 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 52¢ 88¢ $5,200 $8,750 +$3,550 (+68%)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $5,224 $5,738 +$514 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5,708 $5,058 −$650 (-11%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 50¢ 99¢ $2,500 $4,942 +$2,442 (+98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1,586 $1,610 +$24 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $21,814 $1,361 −$20,454 (-94%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $275 $392 +$117 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $185 $218 +$32 (+18%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 63¢ 7¢ $1,181 $140 −$1,041 (-88%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $82 $59 −$24 (-29%)
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-39%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $80 $5 −$76 (-94%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2,232 $0 −$2,232 (-100%)
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $369 $0 −$369 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? No 74¢ 0¢ $24,983 $0 −$24,983 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $822 $0 −$822 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 38¢ 0¢ $3,152 $0 −$3,152 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1,125 $0 −$1,125 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres Sabres 53¢ 0¢ $2,417 $0 −$2,417 (-100%)
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $424 $0 −$424 (-100%)
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 55¢ 0¢ $1,120 $0 −$1,120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 12 $24,983 −$24,983 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 12 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 160k? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? Jun 12 $1,896 −$3,543 -187%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 80k and Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 80k? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $733 −$716 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,246 −$1,226 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2,997 −$2,990 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $75,593 +$45,673 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $3,049 −$704 -23%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $2,005 −$2,003 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $12,163 +$16,597 +136%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $22,579 +$21,705 +96%
Will Drake have exactly 9 songs in the Billboard top 10? May 28 $5,695 +$94 +2%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 28 $9,426 +$162 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $539 −$539 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $83,858 −$63,996 -76%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 27 $8,062 +$778 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $970 −$970 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $4,566 +$2,166 +47%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3,210 −$3,152 -98%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $740 +$224 +30%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $1,377 −$99 -7%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 140k an May 23 $515 −$419 -81%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 160k? May 23 $492 +$5 +1%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k May 23 $1,272 +$1,417 +112%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $27,495 +$504 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $27,462 +$539 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $49,396 +$1,037 +2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 23 $27,015 +$41,834 +155%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $193 −$193 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 22 $2,430 −$2,198 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $132 +$63 +48%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 80k? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 22 $1,338 −$4,797 -359%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $13,004 −$6,721 -52%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k an May 22 $61 +$321 +528%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k an May 22 $637 −$233 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $822 −$822 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $25,701 −$30,021 -117%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $9,500 −$9,459 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 21 $2,259 −$2,232 -99%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 21 $1,327 −$357 -27%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $2,212 −$2,170 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,462 +$894 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% −$55,178
politics 22% −$12,820
sports 18% +$285
other 12% +$41,199
culture 10% +$6,460
crypto 8% +$45,118
finance 0% −$13,424
economics 0% +$1,484
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,130 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $246 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $210 15h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $70 28h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 28h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 29h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 30h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 30h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $35 30h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $687 31h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 32h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $89 33h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 33h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 87 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 25% -12.2%
≤90d 115 +10.6% +0.1% 44% 28% -10.7%
all 115 +10.6% +0.1% 44% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 28% -10.7%
10% -9.5% 28% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.2% 25% -27.1%
20% -26.3% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169,218.40 · official $169,218.29 (match) · 3500 history records