Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecb5…72d7 sports 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,924 (-5%) realized −$6,409 · open −$515
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%171W / 49L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$618per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$891
7 days−$2,755
14 days−$2,755
30 days−$4,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$769
other 30% +$2,533
world 20% −$713
finance 8% −$7,015
tech 2% −$169
politics 1% −$1,142
crypto 0% −$184
weather 0% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.4% -4.6% 83% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 78 -7.8% -16.5% 78% 31% -14.0%
≤90d 220 -7.1% -16.0% 78% 40% -13.3%
all 220 -7.1% -16.0% 78% 40% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 40% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 20% -21.6%
15% -31.4% 7% -29.2%
20% -38.1% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$669) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$419 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$6,409
Unrealized−$515
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses171 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions2
Markets (closed)220 / 222
History coverage55d
Avg bet$618
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jordan 86¢ 88¢ $344 $352 +$8 (+2%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? Yes 37¢ $547 $25 −$523 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$37 +7%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $200 +$17 +8%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $707 +$68 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,357 +$122 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,785 +$1,441 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,012 −$2,012 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $3,568 +$472 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $1,648 −$450 -27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $970 +$30 +3%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $503 +$125 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,954 +$460 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,744 +$212 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $328 +$172 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,915 +$328 +17%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $866 +$34 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,533 +$837 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,228 +$144 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $978 +$250 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $811 +$27 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $677 +$134 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4,820 −$4,265 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $216 +$218 +101%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $172 +$44 +26%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $17 −$17 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $393 −$6 -2%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $528 −$521 -99%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $476 +$53 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $95 +$4 +4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -3%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Dana Charintceva Jun 02 $673 −$669 -99%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Kira Pavlova Jun 02 $82 +$18 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $316 −$314 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $822 +$13 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $2,305 +$173 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $79 +$21 +26%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 01 $90 +$23 +26%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $3,257 +$687 +21%
ITF Kayseri: Pablo Perez Ramos vs Patrick Schoen May 31 $85 +$5 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $82 +$3 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $80 +$2 +3%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 30 $127 +$16 +12%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Kilian Feldbausch May 30 $526 +$180 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $2,361 +$590 +25%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kristina Kroitor vs Aruzhan Sagandikova May 30 $884 +$26 +3%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey May 30 $289 −$286 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $3,308 +$10 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 86¢ $345 9m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Senegal 92¢ $100 2h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Senegal 92¢ $100 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 91¢ $707 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $850 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $842 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $561 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $733 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $967 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,275 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $4,357 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $824 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,961 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 80¢ $2,012 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,200 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,197 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 88¢ $3,568 28h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $101 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 83¢ $201 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $970 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,414 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,954 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 91¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.82 · official $370.82 · 1225 history records