Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xecb8…36e1 sports 53 markets active 1d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%34W / 18L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$89
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$9
other 17% +$21
weather 1% +$15
politics 0% −$10
tech 0% −$5
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.2% -28.7% 60% 36% -16.0%
≤30d 38 -12.8% -21.1% 71% 39% -9.5%
≤90d 46 -19.4% -27.1% 63% 37% -10.0%
all 52 -15.6% -23.6% 65% 40% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 40% -9.2%
10% -30.9% 21% -17.9%
15% -37.6% 12% -25.8%
20% -43.7% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses34 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage101d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $180 +$7 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $170 +$11 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$10 -49%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$6 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 +$6 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $104 −$14 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $43 +$7 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $90 +$9 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$9 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $5 +$4 +89%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Mar 31 $4 −$1 -18%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $65 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15 Mar 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 15? Mar 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $20 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 79¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $82 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $14 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $181 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $60 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $10 4d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $10 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 23¢ $11 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $10 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 113 history records