Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecbb…a8c2
other · 342 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$636 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$653 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$139
Realized−$653
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses182 / 157
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)339 / 342
History coverage174d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 3 History 339 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$83
14 days+$165
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $36 $54 +$18 (+49%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5) Minnesota United FC 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Timberwolves 51¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? No 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 51¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-08? No 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Team WE 59¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-22? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-04? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) FC Nantes 56¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Hellas Verona FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? No 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Magic vs. Lakers Lakers 65¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? No 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? No 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Liverpool FC 53¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BNK FEARX 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $394 $0 −$394 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? No 64¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $42 +$58 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 −$32 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 11 $61 +$39 +65%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 07 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $28 +$32 +112%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $52 +$48 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 05 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $39 +$57 +146%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $74 −$73 -99%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) May 27 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $34 −$34 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $30 +$44 +150%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $27 −$25 -91%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $28 −$28 -100%
CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5 May 17 $31 −$31 -100%
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $53 +$47 +89%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 16 $54 +$46 +86%
Will Bradford City AFC win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $32 +$18 +54%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 06 $52 +$50 +97%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $42 +$60 +146%
Spread: RC Deportivo La Coruña (-1.5) May 01 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 29 $56 +$52 +93%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Apr 27 $53 −$52 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $53 +$46 +86%
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $58 +$41 +70%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $75 +$53 +70%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $46 +$52 +114%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 25 $56 +$43 +76%
Will FK Akron Tolyatti win on 2026-04-23? Apr 25 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $19 +$30 +158%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $32 +$17 +52%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $28 −$28 -99%
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $63 +$36 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $24 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$920
sports 33% +$22
world 5% +$227
politics 0% +$8
crypto 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $33 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $7 5d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $54 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $42 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $54 5d
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 67¢ $68 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 41¢ $41 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $13 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $5 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $0 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $11 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $52 7d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 11d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $18 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 61¢ $62 13d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 51¢ $74 16d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 16d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 16d
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) BUY Cusco FC 53¢ $30 16d
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) BUY Cusco FC 53¢ $24 16d
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 22d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 40¢ $40 22d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 40¢ $30 24d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 5¢ $2 25d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pistons 50¢ $51 25d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $27 25d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 26d
CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 62% +10.5%
≤30d 27 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 137 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 51% -6.1%
all 339 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 52% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 52% -12.9%
10% -20.1% 48% -21.3%
15% -27.8% 44% -28.9%
20% -34.9% 36% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.25 · official $139.25 (match) · 765 history records