Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xecbf…c524 crypto 376 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$363 (+2%) realized +$363 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%329W / 47L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$26
14 days+$41
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$308
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 5% -7.8%
≤30d 46 +3.7% -6.2% 100% 2% -7.3%
≤90d 72 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 1% -7.3%
all 376 +2.9% -6.9% 88% 25% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 25% -8.3%
10% -15.8% 14% -17.0%
15% -23.9% 9% -25.1%
20% -31.4% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$363
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses329 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage177d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $79 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $73 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $72 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $67 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $64 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $39 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 04 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 27 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $70 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $69 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $68 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $63 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $58 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $59 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $57 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 926 history records